International investors, facing political and economic challenges at home, are turning to American markets for safety. Recently, about $30 billion has flowed into stock funds, with 94% directed toward U.S. assets, particularly tech shares, according to EPFR Global data from TD Securities.
Seeking Stability in U.S. Markets
Stung by uncertain politics and sluggish economies in their home countries, international investors are increasingly finding solace in the U.S. markets. Over the past month, approximately $30 billion has flowed into stock funds, with a whopping 94% of that capital directed towards U.S. assets. This influx is primarily focused on tech shares, indicating a strong preference for American technology giants.
Despite concerns over national debt and political divisions, the U.S. market continues to attract global traders looking for stability. This trend is evident as the S&P 500 outpaced other global indices by the widest margin in 15 months, and long-dated U.S. Treasuries saw a 3.5% rally, marking the best performance of 2024.
Foreign Investors Boost U.S. Credit Market
Foreign interest in the U.S. credit market is also running high. During the first quarter of 2024, overseas investors poured $187 billion into U.S. company notes, a 61% increase from the previous year, according to Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management. This surge reflects a growing appetite for American corporate debt amid uncertainties in other parts of the world.
Easing Inflation Fuels Optimism
Reports showing easing inflation in the U.S. and few signs of an impending recession have fueled bullish sentiment, pushing total returns in the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 to over 80% since the start of 2023. This optimistic outlook has resulted in significant gains for U.S. stocks, while funds betting on international markets have struggled to keep up.
"The U.S. remains the most stable country, with a combination of AI and tech-related companies that have no equal elsewhere in the world," said Sameer Samana, senior global market strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. He believes this supremacy will continue until there are significant changes or a suitable substitute emerges.
U.S. Stock Funds Dominate
A measure of investor preference for American equities is hovering near a three-year high. This past week highlighted the dominance of American assets, with investors flocking to safe havens like Treasuries, pushing the 10-year yield to a two-month low. Meanwhile, technology megacaps led the S&P 500 to its seventh gain in eight weeks, with the index surpassing 5,400 for the first time.
In stark contrast, international markets have faced difficulties. The MSCI World ex-US index dropped more than 2%, with Chinese stocks declining for five consecutive weeks amid a sluggish economic recovery. Europe hasn't fared any better; French shares tumbled the most in over two years following President Emmanuel Macron's decision to call a snap election.
Risks of Chasing American Gains
While American markets are currently enjoying a surge of investments, this trend is not without risks. The extreme concentration of investments in large tech firms poses potential hazards. "We have been in an era where the big have gotten bigger for a long time now, and it’s not clear that economic forces can sustain this," said Que Nguyen, chief investment officer of equity strategies at Research Affiliates. She warns that challenges to the dominance of large U.S. companies will eventually emerge, potentially from smaller firms or international rivals.
Diversification Under Pressure
The current momentum in U.S. assets is creating challenges for those who adhere to a strategy of geographical diversity. Among 644 exchange-traded funds (ETFs) specializing in international assets, less than 7% have managed to outperform the S&P 500, according to Bloomberg data. This situation underscores the risks of relying heavily on U.S. markets, despite their current appeal.
In conclusion, while the U.S. market remains a beacon of stability and growth for global investors, the heavy reliance on American assets comes with its own set of risks. The future may see shifts as economic forces evolve and new opportunities arise, both within and outside the United States.
Source: Bloomberg
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