Underdog Investors

  In a thrilling turn of events, traders are betting big on the Federal Reserve slashing interest rates three times this year. This bold move follows Goldman Sachs Group Inc.'s announcement that the conditions are just right for a significant monetary easing, setting the stage for a dynamic second half of 2024. Key Takeaways Market Predictions:  Traders have fully priced in two quarter-point cuts for 2024, with a strong 60% chance of a third cut, signaling high market anticipation. Goldman Sachs Insights:  According to Goldman Sachs economists, there's a solid rationale for an interest rate cut as soon as July, although they still foresee the first move in September. Fed Futures Action:  December contracts are buzzing, pricing in about 62 basis points of easing. Record volumes in October federal funds futures contracts highlight the market's eager anticipation. Powell’s Perspective:  Fed Chair Jerome Powell reinforced the Fed’s confidence in returning inflation ...

CGS International has cut the target price for Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust (MPACT) to $1.58 from $1.59. The main reason? Festival Walk mall in Hong Kong isn’t recovering as quickly as expected. Key Points: • Why the Cut?: Sales in Hong Kong dropped by 6.1% year-on-year as of May 2024, hitting sectors like food, beverages, and clothing hard. • New Forecasts: Analysts now expect Hong Kong’s retail growth to decrease by 6.0% in FY2024 instead of growing by 3.0%. • Local Shopping Trends: More Hong Kong residents are shopping in Shenzhen on weekends, affecting local sales. What This Means: • Challenges Ahead: Festival Walk could see more shifts in local spending with fewer tourists. • Lease Renewals: About 31.7% of the mall’s leases are up for renewal in the first quarter of FY2025. The supermarket tenant TaSTe, which accounts for around 27% of expiries, just had its lease expire in June. Ups and Downs: • Positive: High occupancy at Festi...

This week, the stock market showed its strength, with the S&P 500 going up every day, even though there was a lot of political drama. The index gained 2%, the biggest increase since April. Economic news, like a slowdown in services and a slight rise in unemployment, made investors hopeful for lower interest rates from the Federal Reserve. Key Highlights/Takeaways Federal Reserve's Role : The Fed is still the main player, with hopes for rate cuts keeping the market upbeat. Treasury Yields and Dollar : After an initial jump, Treasury yields and the dollar both settled down, making the market more stable. High Stock Prices : The S&P 500 is trading at very high prices, which could mean slower growth in the future. Tech Stocks Lead : Big tech companies led the market rally, thanks to strong earnings from artificial intelligence. Financial stocks also did well but not as much. Risks Political Uncertainty : With the election coming up, there's still a lot of unknowns about fut...

On July 5, 2024, we got some big news about the U.S. job market that might mean lower interest rates soon. The latest jobs report shows that job growth is slowing down, which could lead to the Federal Reserve cutting rates in September. The June report showed 206,000 new jobs, a bit more than expected, but with big downward revisions for the past two months. This means there were 111,000 fewer jobs added than we thought. The three-month average job growth is now the weakest since January 2021. The unemployment rate went up to 4.1%, higher than last year’s 3.4%, which means more people are looking for jobs. This cooling job market is also slowing down wage growth. Average hourly earnings only grew by 0.3% from last month and 3.9% from last year, the slowest since early 2021. Most of the new jobs were in government and private education/healthcare services. Other sectors like leisure and hospitality, retail, and manufacturing saw job losses. Private payrolls only grew by 136,000 instead ...

On July 5, 2024, Wall Street had a big day! The Nasdaq and S&P 500 hit new record highs, and U.S. Treasurys were in demand. This happened right after a holiday break and thanks to a jobs report that supported hopes for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. The S&P 500 (SP500) went up by 0.29% to 5,553.05 points, and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 0.75% to 18,325.49 points. But the Dow (DJI) slipped a bit, down 0.19% at 39,234.47 points. Seven out of the 11 S&P sectors were in the green, showing a healthy market. Before the markets opened, a report showed that job growth slowed down in June, and the unemployment rate went up a little to 4.1%. This slowdown is a sign that the job market is cooling off, according to Sarah House from Wells Fargo. Mark Zandi from Moody's Analytics said it’s time for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates because job and wage growth are slowing down, and the unemployment rate is ticking up. This idea gained traction, with the odds of a 25 basis...

The semiconductor industry is buzzing with excitement as Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) makes big moves to transform itself. Meanwhile, Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) continues to shine with its popular AI chips.  Let's break down why Intel might be a great investment right now and how it compares to Nvidia. Key Points: Intel’s Big Makeover : Intel is changing its game by becoming a top manufacturer of high-end semiconductors in the U.S. With the government's support, Intel is setting itself up for a bright future. Intel’s Low Price : Compared to its peers, Intel’s stock is a bargain. This low price offers a great opportunity for investors who expect Intel’s earnings to bounce back. Government Backing : The CHIPS and Science Act of 2022 is giving Intel lots of funding and tax breaks. This makes Intel's big investments in U.S. manufacturing less risky and more promising. Future Growth : Intel's strategic investments could lead to big sales and income growth. Analyst...

Summary: Decision:  Supreme Court rules 6-3, authored by Chief Justice Roberts. Impact:  Higher legal bar for obstruction charges in Trump and Jan. 6 cases. Prosecution:  Focus on impairing documents or records. The U.S. Supreme Court on Friday raised the legal threshold for prosecutors pursuing obstruction charges in the federal election subversion case against former President Donald Trump and defendants involved in the Jan. 6 Capitol attack. Narrow Interpretation of Obstruction Statute In a 6-3 decision, Chief Justice John Roberts wrote that prosecutors must demonstrate a defendant "impaired the availability or integrity" of documents or records related to an official proceeding. This ruling overthrows a lower court decision allowing a broader interpretation of the obstruction charge against former police officer Joseph Fischer, directing the lower court to reconsider the matter. Key Takeaways: Higher Bar for Prosecution:  Prosecutors must now show tampering with ...